Despite numerous legal challenges, Trump is currently leading President Biden, but there are more reasons to believe the 45th president might get reelected. From MAGA to the current state of the world, here are the strongest reasons the 45th president could take over the White House.
MAGA power
Unlike old-fashioned conservatives, MAGA Republicans proved to be extremely loyal to the cause and, more importantly, to Trump. The proof? The former president’s support grew with each DOJ indictment. Rick Wilson, co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, explained that Trump’s or MAGA voters “believe that any legal critique of him, any external charge made against him is invalid and a product of the ‘deep state’ or a conspiracy of some kind.”
Border crisis
The border issue will be one of the most talked-about topics in the election year. Trump’s 2024 campaign went even further, with the former president claiming that immigrants are “poisoning our blood.” While this rhetoric was considered dangerous, the message was clear for many voters: Trump would solve this crisis.
The global issues
While it is easy to blame Biden for the inflation or downfall of the economy, it should be noted that all U.S. allies are facing the same challenges. There are wars across the world, but understanding how it affects the U.S. as a whole is not something voters are interested in. That’s why many reminisce about Trump’s presidency while forgetting that Covid carries a good portion of the issues in the U.S.
The media coverage
Trump is likely the most talked-about person not only in the U.S. but globally. The publicity he received cannot be bought. While most media coverage did not paint him in the best of light, we’ve learned long ago that there’s no such thing as bad P.R.
Trump on vaccines
Talking to Fox News anchor Bret Baier last spring, the former president mentioned Covid vaccines, saying, “I got them done in nine months, and it was supposed to take anywhere from 5-12 years.” Still, “people love the vaccines and people hate the vaccines,” so Trump said, “I really don’t want to talk about it because, as a Republican, it’s not a great thing to talk about, because for some reason it’s just not.”
Global warming
During a Fox town hall meeting, Trump stated, “The only global warming we should be thinking about and worrying about because it is gonna happen tomorrow is nuclear global warming, not global warming.” Due to numerous conspiracy theories and the rise in living costs, many see global warming as a nuisance, and Trump’s message speaks to them.
The lack of trust in the government
Only two-in-ten Americans say they trust the government, the Pew Center revealed in 2023. That’s what makes Trump’s case unique – he was and wants to be part of the government, yet the so-called “witch hunts” are proving to be quite helpful when it comes to Trump’s popularity.
Bidenomics
While employment has dropped and the stock market is booming, most Americans still do not feel the benefits of Bidenomics. People do not care about statistics, but the quality of life, and many believe that Trump’s administration offered better living conditions.
The GOP’s support
Trump has the vocal support of many Republican lawmakers. This does not mean that all Republicans are pro-Trump, but he certainly has the support of those who are the loudest and will not challenge but echo Trump’s remarks. We saw it with the “witch hunt,” “weaponization of DOJ,” and rewriting the history of January 6, 2021.
War on crime
Talking to California Republicans, Trump stated, “We will immediately stop all of the pillaging and theft. Very simply: If you rob a store, you can fully expect to be shot as you are leaving that store.” The increase in crimes brought a new wave of anxiety among voters, which could explain why such a drastic statement earned the former president applause.
Young voters
A recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll suggested that Trump is leading 37% to Biden’s 33% among under-30 voters. Apart from the economy, Biden failed younger voters in his foreign policies, especially regarding the Middle East and climate change. This could mean that Trump could take away young voters from Biden, not because they are pro-Trump, but because they are against Biden.
“Most pro-life” president
Trump, who called himself “the most pro-life president ever,” recognized that taking drastic steps is not going to win him any points. That’s why he believes the six-week ban is too harsh. Trump said during a Fox event, “I happen to be for the exceptions, like Ronald Reagan – with the life of the mother, rape, incest.”
The Electoral College
Trump never won a majority, but he took the 2016 election due to the electoral college. CNN’s inaugural “Road to 270” electoral map shows that Trump had an advantage, and if the elections were held today, Biden would likely lose.
GOP voters are more pro-Trump than Democrats are pro-Biden
According to Associated Press polling, 44 percent of GOP voters do not want Trump to be the presidential nominee. On the other hand, the polling suggested that 75 percent of Democrats did not want Biden to be the Democratic nominee.
GOP voters are more passionate
Around 70 percent of Republican voters think that the 2020 elections were stolen, a number much higher than in previous years. That makes them less likely to care about Trump’s charges and even more determined to get him back in the office. While Trump’s “Big lie” was often ridiculed, it apparently paid off.
Trump’s cases won’t be resolved in 2024
Despite the initial dates set for Trump’s federal charges, the odds of getting a conviction are slim. For example, the D.C. case is on pause as the Judge awaits a decision from higher courts regarding Trump’s presidential immunity. Many warned that Trump’s tactic would be delaying until he’s back in the White House, which also seems to be working.
Short memory
While Biden was crucified over support for Israel, people likely forgot about Trump’s Muslim ban. There are numerous instances of people forgetting that things were not that great under the previous president, which has nothing to do with Trump. For many, the 2022 midterms were the price the GOP had to pay over their policies, and since then, people have moved on.
Rise of White Christian nationalism
Finally, the rise and rise of Christian nationalism could be helpful in Trump’s 2024 victory. While white Christian nationalism is linked to authoritarianism, antisemitism, patriarchy, and racism, grasping its magnitude and what it could mean to democracy is still a mystery to the majority of voters.
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