Trump's Hold on Republican Core Base Remains Strong, Yet Struggles to Gain Broader Appeal in Primaries

On Feb 24, Trump easily won yet another Republican primary contest, beating his lone remaining opponent, Nikki Haley, in her home state of South Carolina, by 30 points. However, while the results underline the former president’s continued support among his MAGA base, an AP analysis suggests he might struggle in a more diverse general election.

Strong support

Trump has thus far won every Republican primary contest by comfortable margins. In Iowa, the first contest, he took home 51% of the vote. In New Hampshire, he gained 54%, and in South Carolina he earned just under 60% of the vote.

Loyal base

The former president remained popular with those who voted for him in 2020. He performed exceptionally well among voters who were white, did not have a college degree, or lived in a rural area — all key parts of the Republican base.

Different test

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However, the makeup of the general electorate is very different from the group that votes in the Republican primaries. As such, Trump’s dominance among his usual core group might not translate to a victory in the upcoming general election.

Problems ahead

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While Haley’s support in the primary has been limited, the groups in which she is popular are potentially more representative of the general electorate.

The urban question

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For example, Haley performed relatively well in the suburbs of South Carolina, coming far closer to Trump than in the state as a whole. Trump also failed to win the suburbs in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Suburbia

As the AP noted, a plurality of voters live in the suburbs. Trump’s failure to extend his dominance among rural voters to the suburbs could spell trouble in the general election.

City living

Fewer voters live in urban areas, but they opted for Haley in South Carolina.

Balancing on the fence

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Haley also performed well with voters who identified as moderate or liberal. In South Carolina, about 40% of Haley voters chose Biden over Trump in 2020.

Extrapolating data

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Unfortunately for Haley, about 70% of Republican voters identify as conservative. That meant she had a pretty low ceiling on her vote share in the primaries — but things will be very different in the general election.

Changing situation

Only about 40% of voters in the general electorate identify as conservative. The rest identify as moderate or liberal, and neither group was favorable to Trump in 2020.

Specifics

In 2020, only 36% of self-identified moderates chose Trump, and just 8% of self-identified liberals voted for him. If they reject Trump again in 2024, it could seriously undermine his potential path to victory.

Unprecedented candidate

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Trump’s ongoing criminal trials may also affect his chances of retaking the White House. Multiple polls indicate that about a third of Republican voters think he broke the law.

Both sides

While that does indicate that a significant majority of Republicans don’t believe that Trump broke the law, despite the 91 criminal charges against him, it could spell trouble for the former president’s election chances. As those trials continue, more evidence is revealed, and convictions are potentially issued, the number of voters willing to support Trump could dwindle.

Total refusal

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According to the AP, more than a fifth of the people who voted in South Carolina’s Republican primary indicated they would not back Trump if he were the nominee. A similar number said the same in Iowa, while even more — about 30% — said this in New Hampshire.