Colorado’s 4th Congressional District voters appear to be offering Representative Lauren Boebert a cautionary note.
Colorado’s GOP Skepticism
According to a Kaplan Strategies poll highlighted by Newsweek, nearly half (46 percent) of likely GOP voters in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District are hesitant to support a candidate who’s just moved into the area. Meanwhile, 22 percent are on board, and 33 percent haven’t made up their minds yet.
Will Boebert’s Bet Pay Off?
This reluctance to back a newcomer could spell trouble for Boebert, who switched to this reliably red district after a challenging re-election campaign in her current seat, Colorado’s 3rd.
A Razor-Thin Victory
After narrowly clinching her seat in 2022 by just 546 votes against Democrat Adam Frisch, Boebert faces new challenges: her district’s political landscape has evolved from a Republican stronghold to a battleground.
Boebert’s Next Target
She’s now eyeing a seat in the 4th district, soon to be left open by Representative Ken Buck, who’s stepping down partly due to frustrations over some party members’ refusal to acknowledge the 2020 election results.
Voter Hesitation
Although recent polls suggest some voter hesitation, Doug Kaplan, the president of Kaplan Strategies, remains optimistic about Boebert’s chances. With Boebert capturing 32 percent of the Republican vote and her closest contender, Mike Lynch, trailing at 7 percent, Kaplan remarked, “Unless the party coalescences around one person, she will win.”
Unfavorable Odds
Kaplan highlights a significant hurdle for Boebert’s campaign: her disapproval ratings. Over 40% of GOP voters view her unfavorably, slightly more than the 38% who view her favorably. Furthermore, 45% question her character and judgment.
Kaplan notes, “I have not seen [a] poll where the leading candidate has such unfavorables,”
Winning Over Undecided Voters
With nearly half the district’s voters undecided, Boebert’s chances of winning them over remain in question. Of those not already backing her or undecided, 67% are currently not considering her, while only 33% might still be persuaded.
MAGA’s Influence
The disconnect might stem from the district’s MAGA affiliation. Although the 4th District favored Trump by nearly 20 percentage points in 2020, a whopping 55% of survey participants stated they don’t align with the “MAGA Republican” label.
The MAGA Minority
Kaplan observes, “It’s less of a MAGA district,” highlighting that even in primary races, a 10 percentage point lead for MAGA identifiers is common. Yet, only 45% of those surveyed see themselves as “MAGA Republicans.”
The Trump Factor
Notably, a significant 66% would back Trump in a GOP primary, and Boebert’s chances could rise by 45% with his endorsement.
This survey, conducted on February 24 among 558 likely voters, carries a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.
Offstage Drama
Since taking office, Boebert has been embroiled in controversies, including a recorded incident at a Beetlejuice performance where she was seen vaping and being overly affectionate with her date.
Boebert’s Apology
Initially, Boebert expressed her enjoyment of the show on X (previously known as Twitter), denying any indoor vaping. However, she later issued an apology, admitting her actions did not align with her personal values.
Carpetbagging Criticisms
This incident has fueled criticisms of “carpetbagging,” suggesting Boebert is an outsider seeking personal advantage by moving to a new district.
Boebert Responds
When challenged to explain “carpetbagging” by State Representative Mike Lynch at the Fort Lupton debate, Boebert candidly shared, “I have moved into the fourth district. My boys and I needed a fresh start… This move is the right move for me and for them.”
A Year of Challenges
Boebert clarifies her decision to switch districts isn’t tied to her narrow victory margin but stems from personal challenges, including a recent divorce.
Opening Up
In a December video, she opened up: “I had never been in politics before and I’d never been through a divorce, something I never intended to go through. I’ve made my own personal mistakes and have owned up and apologized for them.”
She described the past year as a particularly tough period for her and her family.
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