While Trump won the overall vote in South Carolina’s Feb 24 primary with just under 60%, he wasn’t a victor among every group. Haley was popular among those with higher incomes, college graduates, and in urban areas, for example.
Overall score
With over 95% of the vote reported, Trump comfortably won the South Carolina Republican primary with 59.8% of the vote. Former governor of the state Nikki Haley won 39.5% of the vote.
Important vote
Trump’s victory is bad news for Haley, who was banking on a strong showing in her home state to keep her campaign alive. She is Trump’s sole remaining opponent in the contest for the Republican presidential nomination.
Comparison
In the 2016 South Carolina Republican primary, Trump topped a crowded field with 32.51% of the vote. In 2019, the state’s Republican Party officially cancelled its primary, later pledging all 50 of its delegates to Trump.
Increase
Compared to 2016, Trump increased his vote share among all voter groups by 27%. However, when compared to the unified support he received in 2020, his 60% vote share represents a marked drop.
Overperforming
Trump performed particularly well with voters in lower-income areas, who swung for the former president by 45 points. He was also 55 points more popular than Haley in areas with fewer college graduates.
More overperforming
Trump also performed well in rural areas, earning 70% to Haley’s 30%. He won the suburbs by a smaller eight-point margin, taking 54% to Haley’s 46%.
Haley’s victory
In urban areas, the balance flipped, with Haley ten points ahead. She took home 55% of the urban vote compared to Trump’s 45%.
Extending influence
Haley also won some of the suburbs surrounding her urban strongholds, which included Charleston and Columbia. She also performed well in wealthy pockets like Hilton Head Island.
More good signs for Haley
Similarly, areas with more college graduates voted 54% for Haley and just 45% for Trump. Higher-income areas also swung for Haley, albeit by a small two-point margin — 51% to 49%.
Slim difference
Overall, in areas in which Biden performed well in the 2020 presidential election, Trump received 50% of the vote, while Haley received 49%.
The methodology
The New York Times, which calculated these figures, defined a higher income area as one where the median household took home at least $78,000 per year. Lower-income areas where those were the median household took home $40,000 or less.
Education
Areas with more college graduates were defined as those where at least 40% of the residents had a college degree. Areas with fewer graduates were those where that figure was less than 15%.
Biden’s influence
The areas defined as being strong for Biden were those where more than half the population voted for Biden in 2020. Trump won the state with over 55% of the vote in 2020, though Biden received more than one million votes, with strong support in some areas.
What this all means
“I said earlier this week that no matter what happens in South Carolina, I would continue to run,” Haley said after the race was called just one minute after the polls closed. “I’m a woman of my word.”
Staying strong
Haley pointed to the fact that around 40% of the electorate chose her as evidence that enough Republicans were dissatisfied with Trump to warrant her continued refusal to concede to him — as many in the party have already done. Her vote share was especially high if Trump is considered as an incumbent rather than a new candidate.
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