President Biden is an experienced politician, popular Vice President, and world-recognized diplomat. However, there are chances that he might lose the 2024 race, and all the latest surveys suggest Trump’s in the lead. So, what are the reasons Biden might lose the 2024 election?
Biden’s age
Biden is already the oldest President, and since he’s in his 80s, people are questioning his mental capacity and overall health. This is not something the GOP wants to use against the President, significantly since Trump’s a couple of years younger. This is a concern among Democratic voters and one of the reasons he could lose the 2024 re-election.
Biden’s foreign policies
There are several hot spots in the world now, and the US, as one of the greatest forces worldwide, is implicated, whether you want it to be or not. While Biden’s support to Ukraine would not cost him elections, the situation in the Middle East is far more complex.
Bidenomics
Bidenomics is working, but that does not mean we will ever return to life as before the pandemic. Inflation is slowing down, the stock market is booming, and unemployment is low. However, people have yet to notice the real effects in everyday life. If it happens before the elections, Biden might have a chance. If not, many anti-Trump voters will likely sit this one out.
All the “progress” talk
If we put Bidenomics aside, there is a lot of talk about progress, explained Stanley Greenberg, a Democratic pollster. He told CNN, “You can’t talk about progress when three-quarters of the country think we’re on the wrong track. So you have to stop on the notion that we’re making progress. You have to get where people are, and where they are is on the rising prices.”
Electoral math
The last Republican President to win the popular vote was George W. Bush in 2004. The Electoral College process benefits Republicans, and even with more votes, Biden could still lose the election. The latest polling from key states suggests that that would likely be the case if the elections were held today. CNN reminded, “Georgia plus Michigan plus one more” will be a victory for Trump.
The anti-Trump voters
Many people did not vote for Biden because of his policies. A significant portion of voters simply wanted Trump out of the White House. But, after over three years and numerous issues, most listed here, people will not repeat that pattern.
Border crisis
According to Bloomberg’s polling in seven key states, over 60 percent of voters blame Biden for the border crisis. Apart from the economy and women’s rights, this will be among the most discussed topics during the 2024 race. Republicans are aware that this is something they can control, and regardless of how they act, the voters will likely point fingers at the President.
Losing younger voters
Many young voters are disappointed with the overturn of Roe vs. Wade, the low focus on climate change, and Biden’s handling of the situation in Israel. NBC News talked to younger voters, and other issues mentioned were student debts and the economy.
MAGA voters have more to gain
Trump’s supporters, many of whom believe the 2020 elections were stolen, have a clear goal – to get Trump back in office. For Biden voters, that drive is nowhere near high. Most are unhappy with the state of the world, and while it is understandably not all Biden’s fault, it is hard to get excited about the elections.
Black opposition to Biden is growing
Democratic party has been able to count on Black voters for decades. But recent polls by NBC and the New York Times reported that Black opposition to Biden is rising. NBC reported that it went from 12 to 20% since the last elections. The Times reported that number is even higher – 22%. It does not mean these votes will all go to Trump, but more likely, like young voters, some Black voters will skip this election.
Lack of enthusiasm inside the party
While the vast majority of congressional Democrats support the President, not many are as vocal. Apart from a selected few, led by Raskin, most Democrats are not fighting fire with fire. The “when they go low, we go higher” mantra did not work for Clinton, and it will not work for Biden.
Trump’s trials
After a red wave that never came in the 2022 primaries, Trump’s indictments showed growing support for the former President. Trump claimed a “witch hunt” from the start, and after over 90 charges and speeches like “I’m being indicted for you,” Trump surpassed Biden. That could only change if he gets convicted before the elections, which is highly unlikely.
Fentanyl crisis
In 2023, the US reported 112,000 fatal overdoses, and many Republicans are blaming the Biden administration’s border policies that reportedly allowed fentanyl smugglers into the country.
Alleged crime rates
While the number of violent crimes dropped, a Gallup survey found that 77 percent of Americans believe crime is up compared to 2022. It does not matter what the numbers say if the people’s perception says otherwise. The only exception is car theft, but otherwise, the numbers, according to the FBI, claim that the US is back to pre-pandemic days.
Military aid
According to the FiveThirtyEight poll, 48% of voters think Biden’s spending too much money on military aid to Ukraine, while another 40% think he’s spending way too much on aid to Israel. The same polling concluded in December that Biden is the most unpopular US president in modern history.
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