After January 6, it appeared that Trump’s political career was over. Yet, the win in Iowa proved that his star is on the rise once again despite alleged and yet-to-be-proven court insurrection and legal troubles.
Marriage of “convenience”
Eric Levitz from Vox analyzed Trump’s success and reminded readers that “the marriage between Trump and the Republican Party had always been one of convenience.” But, after January 6, 2021, many Republicans were ready to turn their backs on him, with lifelong Republican Senator McConnell declaring, “The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the President and other powerful people.”
The 2022 midterm elections
Many blame Trump for the Red Wave that never happened. Republicans won the popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives but held a slim majority. According to PEW research, Trump’s voters turned at a higher rate than President Biden’s, yet the announced Red Wave never came.
Events that led to the midterms
Apart from January 6, the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision possibly played a role in the midterms. Overturning Roe vs. Wade was still new, and the consequences are now even more evident, with many predicting it could lead to further losses by the Republicans. A recent case in Texas proved that abortion bans, especially in medical emergencies, do not sit well with the general public.
Trump’s time to shine
The former President announced he would run for reelection after the FBI seized Mar-a-Lago documents and investigations into what happened before and on the day of the Capitol riots already occurred. The first indictment, in March 2023, was a shock, but it turned out to boost Trump’s popularity.
91 criminal charges
The 45th president now faces 91 criminal charges across four indictments. Additionally, he was found liable for assault and defamation in 2023, but a recent Iowa win proved that none of it matters.
Leaving other GOP nominees behind
Trump leads Haley and DeSantis by nearly 50 points, recent FiveThirtyEight polling suggested. While surveys can be way off, as we saw in the 2016 presidential elections, the Iowa win was on point. But, it is not just Republican presidential hopefuls that were left behind.
Biden vs. Trump
The rematch is almost impossible to avoid, but Vox’s Levitz reminded us that “Trump is in a stronger position to win the presidency in November than he was at this time in 2016.” But, he also alerted, “Trump presidency has never been a more alarming prospect than it is today.”
“Political prisoners”
Numerous legal experts warned of Trump’s rhetoric, and part of it includes calling January 6 rioters “political prisoners” or “hostages.” In early January, Trump had a message for the President, “Release the hostages, Joe.” For MAGA supporters, this means freedom, but not all Republicans agree with Trump’s words.
Iowa Senator spoke up
Joni Ernst, a Senator from Iowa and a Republican, said, “It does in this context because we do have American hostages that are being held against their will all around the globe, and especially if you look at the innocents that were attacked and kidnapped on October 7.” The Senator was, of course, referring to the Middle East attacks.
The invention of RINOs
Trump’s supporters enjoy labeling Republicans who oppose him as RINOs, or Republicans in the name only. Among them are some of the most prominent names, like Liz Cheney or Mitt Romney. But, it appears that they either spoke too late or were not loud enough.
“Democratic crisis”
Vox’s author does not solely blame one person but notes, “The weakening of America’s political parties and the maniacal recklessness of the conservative movement have brought Trump to the brink of renomination and the United States to the verge of a democratic crisis.”
Decades of demise
The book “The Hollow Parties” by political scientists Daniel Schlozman and Sam Rosenfeld details the demise of both parties and the rise of the new conservatism. Levitz writes, “The GOP’s lurch toward authoritarianism is inextricable from both.”
“Acute crisis”
In his piece “How Trump went from disgraced insurrectionist to Iowa caucus winner,” which details how both parties failed people, Levitz concluded, “Trump’s conquest of this broken party has thrown American democracy into an acute crisis. Yet even if Biden prevails in November, the fundamental challenge to democratic politics in the U.S. will remain.”
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