In CNBC’s latest poll, former President Donald Trump is predicted to win comfortably, leading President Joe Biden 48% to 42%. A series of recent polls showing Biden behind the controversial former president has led commentators from both parties to call for the incumbent to allow someone else to run in 2024.
Uncomfortable Position
The CNBC poll joins a lengthening list of surveys that have Trump leading Biden. In December, polls from USA Today, the Daily Mail, McLaughlin & Associates, Yahoo News, The Bullfinch Group, WPA Intelligence, Morning Consult, and Emerson College all had Trump ahead.
What Happened Last Time
In December 2019, polls showed Biden leading Trump by roughly 10 points. Biden then went on to win by only four points.
Danger Signs
In other words, polls could be inflating Biden’s chances — so the fact they show Trump winning already could be a terrible sign for Democrats.
Historical Comparison
The last time an incumbent Democratic president lost re-election was in 1980, when Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan. Carter’s approval in the December before his loss was 37%, only slightly lower than Biden’s 39%.
Key Issues
Additionally, Biden trails Trump on a number of issues central to the looming election. For example, a recent Marquette University poll has Biden trailing by more than 20 points on border security.
Losing Ground
That’s despite — or because of — Biden’s rightward shift on these critical issues, which have drawn fierce criticism from progressives. Polls have shown Biden losing ground among key Democratic voter groups: Young people and non-white voters.
Plummeting Support
In one recent New York Times poll, Biden’s support among these two groups in swing states has plummeted. And the last survey from the Associated Press shows his support among Black voters at 50%, down a staggering 36 points from July 2021.
Switching Sides
In fact, some members of these groups have started actively campaigning against Biden. A coalition of Muslim leaders, for example, launched the #AbandonBiden movement in December in response to Biden’s refusal to call for a ceasefire in Gaza.
The Age Problem
Despite being just four years older than Trump, Biden has faced significant scrutiny over his ability to handle a second term. According to a recent Washington Post poll, almost three-quarters of Americans say the incumbent is too old to run again.
Democratic Criticism
Republican jabs at Biden’s age are commonplace, but Democrats are also critical. David Axelrod, former President Obama’s chief strategist, said that it was “really risky” for Biden to run, suggesting that the incumbent “thinks he can cheat nature.”
Not Budging
Despite all this, Biden seems determined to run again. He reportedly responded to Axelrod’s comments by calling him a pr..ck.
Who’d Replace Him?
Biden’s obvious replacement would be Vice President Kamala Harris, but she polls even worse than he does. Hillary Clinton, another potential choice, also polls poorly, and has infamously already lost against Trump, the likely Republican nominee.
No Primary
Many Democrats, including presidential candidate Marianne Williamson, have fiercely criticized the Party’s decision to forgo primary debates. “The DNC refusing to hold a single primary debate is undemocratic and robs the voters of choice,” Nina Turner posted on X, formerly Twitter, in April. “No one who feels confident in their record and/or ideas would hesitate to stand on them. The DNC should hold debates. This is supposed to be a democratic process.”
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