Texas Governor Greg Abbott is currently engaged in a headline-grabbing standoff with President Biden over the state’s refusal to abide by federal law and a Supreme Court decision. Heath Brown and Wesley Leckrone, both experts in US politics, told Newsweek that the tense battle could actually benefit Biden.
Shifting the narrative
“Biden has suffered with the public over the last several years on immigration,” Brown said, “because he’s seen as not doing anything at all.” However, “the recent stalemate in Congress on immigration reform will flip that dynamic: Republicans are going to be seen as the inactive ones and Biden as the one who’s the eager problem-solver.”
Acting tough
Biden’s proposed border deal includes a variety of concessions to conservatives, including granting the president a new authority to effectively shut the border after one of a few thresholds for migrant crossings is reached. Biden has pledged to “shut down the border” if the Senate passes his bill.
Refusing to cooperate
However, prominent Republican figures, including Trump and House Majority Leader Mike Johnson, have refused to back the legislation, arguing that the GOP should hold out until all of their demands are met. Mitch McConnell, who previously warned colleagues that Democrats would never support such a conservative bill under a Republican president, recently implied that he would oppose the bill because it might “undermine” Trump’s reelection chances.
Dark Biden
“Similarly,” Brown expanded, “Biden’s confrontation with Governor Abbott may reveal Biden as a fighter, and Americans always prefer strength and action over inaction in the White House.”
Source of the conflict
On January 22, the Supreme Court ruled that federal officials must be allowed to remove razor wire placed along the southern border by the Texas National Guard. A 2012 Supreme Court ruling affirmed that federal law supersedes state law on immigration matters.
Defiance
However, Abbott publicly challenged the ruling, declaring that he would “hold the line” and that his state’s right to defend itself against a so-called “invasion” is “the supreme law of the land and supersedes any federal statutes to the contrary.” He was backed up by 25 other Republican governors.
Potential gain
“Abbott taking matters into his own hands,” Leckrone explained, “talk in GOP circles of rejecting the Supreme Court’s ruling, and the optics of other red states sending National Guard troops into Texas all play into Biden’s narrative of Trump and the GOP’s march toward authoritarianism and the rejection of the rule of law.”
Winning support
“I doubt there will be a long-term cost to Biden,” Leckrone predicted. “There may even be a net gain for him, particularly among swing voters.”
Losing support
In mid-January, Biden’s job approval rating dropped to a new low — lower than any president’s in the last 15 years. Another survey found that 52% of voters in seven swing states trust Trump over Biden on immigration.
Core bases lost
Biden’s rightward turn on immigration may lose him support among key Democratic voting groups, particularly young people and people of color. Multiple polls have found Biden drawing even or even losing to Trump among young voters, with Vox speculating that Trump “could do better with young voters than any other Republican candidate of the modern era.”
Real consequences
Abbott’s refusal to work with federal agents on the border made headlines earlier in January after three migrants, two of them children, drowned in an area of the border that federal officials were not allowed to enter.
No help
Last year, a Jacobin analysis of polling found that Biden’s rightward movement on immigration was “not only the wrong thing to do … it also isn’t winning voters over to him.”
Rebellion brewing
On Wednesday, POLITICO reported that Biden faced a looming “progressive rebellion” over his conservative border deal, which Rep. Greg Cesar slammed as “bad for our economy” and “not humane.” “The president would just do very well to remember it has never worked for Democrats to just take up Republican talking points and think that somehow Republicans are going to turn around and thank us for it,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal warned.”
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