While the so-called “California exodus” appears to be slowing, 2023 saw more than 75,000 Californians leave the Golden State.
Continued decline
For decades, California’s population grew, eventually making it the most populous state in the union. However, in 2020 that trend reversed.
Years and years
According to data collected by the US Census, the population has declined for the last three years in a row. However, the decline slowed in 2022, thanks to a reduction in deaths and an increase in foreign immigration.
Exact figures
“Foreign immigration nearly tripled in 2022 compared with the prior year,” the California Department of Finance explained in May 2023. “The 0.35-percent population decline for 2022, roughly 138,400 persons, marks a slowdown compared to the recent decline during the COVID-19 Pandemic.”
Zoom in
Nevertheless, some parts of California bucked the trend. San Francisco, for example, saw its population decline reverse, adding about 5,000 new residents during the 12 months ending June 30, 2023.
Consequences
California’s population loss has national consequences. In 2021, the state lost a seat in the House of Representatives for the first time in its history.
Shift in power
Texas and Florida, meanwhile, gained two seats and one seat, respectively. These population trends could shift the national power balance between the two leading political parties, and Republicans are actively working to further it.
Enticements
“Texas politicians have long sought to woo California residents and businesses,” an AP report from 2021 explained. There and in Florida, “business-friendly policies and lower costs of living have fueled high-octane growth over the past decade.”
Strategic success
“There will be gloating — political gloating — I can guarantee it,” Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a professor of public policy communication at the University of Southern California, told AP.
Seemingly paradoxical
According to the June 2023 California Community Poll, 70% of Californians expressed high happiness with living in the state. Nevertheless, 40% of them are still considering leaving.
Reasons to leave
It’s not that residents want to leave, then, but that they simply can’t stay. The majority of those considering leaving California are doing so because of the prohibitive cost of living.
Unfortunate situation
“The state’s culture and diversity have proved to be a very powerful magnet to keep a lot of people here, even despite the affordability challenges,” Dan Schnur, a Californian and communications professor, explained to USA Today. “But as the cost of living continues to be a greater challenge, it’s logical to assume that the allure of moving to a more affordable location is going to continue to grow.”
Seeking affordability
Between 2017 and 2021, more than 180,000 Californians moved to Arizona. However, tens of thousands of Arizonans moved in the opposite direction during the same period.
Major issue
Housing in California is among the most expensive in the nation, and is one of the major causes of the state’s affordability problems. Per a recent report by real estate brokerage Redfin, “Homebuyers leaving Los Angeles, for instance, are most commonly moving to Las Vegas, where homes are roughly half the price.”
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