Biden Takes the Lead in Head-to-Head Matchup Against Trump, Poll Shows

According to the latest Quinnipiac University national poll, President Biden maintains a narrow lead over Donald Trump in a potential 2024 presidential race, with 49% of voters favoring Biden and 45% backing Trump. This is a slight change from Quinnipiac’s January 31 poll, where Biden was at 50% and Trump at 44%.

Biden Holds Lead in 2024 Race

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Breaking it down by party lines, 93% of Democrats rally behind Biden versus 4%, and 91% of Republicans are for Trump with 7% against. Independents seem split, showing 44% for Biden and 42% for Trump.

The Third-Party Effect 

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Expanding the hypothetical 2024 presidential election to include third-party candidates alters the dynamics considerably. In this scenario, President Joe Biden leads with 38% of the support, closely trailed by former President Donald Trump at 37%. 

Influence of Independent Candidates

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Independent candidates make a significant impact, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. securing 15%, Cornel West capturing 3%, and Green Party’s Jill Stein also at 3%.

Age and Fitness

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The poll highlights voters’ concerns about age and fitness for the presidency. A notable 67% of voters believe President Joe Biden is too old to effectively serve another 4-year term, a slight decrease from the 68% opinion in September 2023. 

Conversely, 57% of voters feel Donald Trump is not too old to serve, down from 63% in September. 

Who’s Fit to Serve?

(COMBO) This combination of pictures created on November 4, 2020 shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden gestures after speaking during election night at the Chase Center in Wilmington, Delaware, and US President Donald Trump speaks during election night in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, early on November 4, 2020. President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden are battling it out for the White House, with polls closed across the United States Tuesday -- and a long night of waiting for results in key battlegrounds on the cards. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS and MANDEL NGAN / AFP)
Image by MANDEL NGAN, ANGELA WEISS / AFP

When assessing physical and mental fitness for a second term, 35% believe Biden is physically fit and 34% see him as mentally fit, while for Trump, 60% affirm his physical fitness and 48% his mental fitness.

Ethics and Empathy

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The poll also delves into voters’ perceptions of Biden and Trump in terms of ethics, empathy, and temperament. When asked if they are ethical, 49% affirm this for Biden, while only 29% say the same for Trump. 

Regarding care for average Americans, 51% believe Biden does, in contrast to 42% for Trump. 

Personality and Temperament

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Evaluating their personality and temperament for effective presidency, Biden is endorsed by 49%, whereas Trump is viewed favorably by 37%. 

Physical vs. Emotional Fitness

Former US President and Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump departs after speaking at a "Commit to Caucus" rally in Clinton, Iowa, on January 6, 2024. (Photo by TANNEN MAURY / AFP)
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The poll suggests a Biden-Trump split in physical and emotional fitness, indicating strengths and weaknesses for both. Trump is seen as leading in age and stamina, but Biden is perceived as more empathic and emotionally stable for the job.

Biden vs. Trump in Voter’s Eyes

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“A Biden-Trump split decision on physical and emotional fitness leaves both looking vulnerable. Yes, Trump wins walking away on the age and stamina question, but voters have more confidence in Biden’s empathy toward them and his emotional stability to handle the job,” noted Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

Haley Takes Lead Over Biden

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In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup featuring President Biden against Republican candidate Nikki Haley, a former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor, Haley slightly leads with 46% voter support compared to Biden’s 43%. 

A Multi-Candidate Analysis

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When the field is expanded to include independent and Green Party candidates, the dynamics shift: Biden gets 35%, Haley 27%, Kennedy 24%, West 5%, and Stein 3%. 

Trump and Biden Ahead

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In the party primaries, Trump dominates the Republican field with 80% support over Haley’s 17%, while in the Democratic primary, Biden leads with 80% against U.S. Representative Dean Phillips at 15%.

Biden’s Approval Ratings

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President Biden’s job approval ratings currently stand in a challenging spot, with a 40 – 57 percent disapproval. In specific areas, the public’s opinion varies: 47 percent approve of his handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but 48 percent disapprove. 

Economy and Foreign Policy

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On economic issues, 42 percent give their approval versus 55 percent disapproval. His foreign policy decisions see a 36 – 60 percent approval-disapproval split. 

Violence Issues

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When it comes to gun violence, 32 percent approve of his actions, while 59 percent disapprove. His response to the Israel-Hamas conflict has 31 percent approval against 62 percent disapproval. 

Border Crisis 

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Lastly, his handling of the Mexican border situation is approved by 29 percent of voters, with 63 percent disapproving.

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