Could former President Donald Trump get his verdict in the Washington D.C. criminal case just before the November 5th presidential election? It seems likely, based on a recent legal analysis.
Legal Blow for Trump
This prediction stems from the D.C. Court of Appeals’ Tuesday ruling, which rejected Trump’s presidential immunity claim in a case about his alleged efforts to undermine the 2020 election.
Trump’s Next Stop
This decision shifts the focus to the Supreme Court, which now faces the task of dealing with Trump’s expected appeal and deciding whether to expedite or delay the proceedings.
Summer Showdown
If the Supreme Court acts a certain way, Trump’s trial in D.C. might kick off in June or July and possibly extend until October 30, as suggested by legal experts on Just Security.
Pre-Election Verdict
This analysis indicates that Trump could very well receive a verdict in this case right before the election, adding an unexpected twist to the 2024 campaign.
Historic Legal Drama
The timing of the trial, potentially concluding just days before the election, sets up an unprecedented and suspenseful legal drama in American presidential politics.
Bizzarre Election Scenario
It also presents a bizarre scenario where Trump could face serious felony convictions, possibly carrying long prison sentences, right as he’s poised to possibly win the presidency.
Swinging the Election?
With no historical parallel, the ramifications of a Trump guilty verdict before the election are immense. Such a verdict could significantly sway the entire election outcome.
Voter Sentiment
Current polls indicate that many voters, while indifferent to Trump’s four indictments, might change their stance if he’s convicted of serious crimes.
Although these early polls should be approached cautiously, they suggest that a last-minute verdict could be crucial in a close election.
Voter Loyalty Tested
A New York Times/Sienna College poll in December revealed that nearly one-fourth of Trump’s supporters believe he should not be the nominee if convicted.
Felony Conviction
Furthermore, a September Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that most Americans, including nearly a third of Republicans, would not vote for Trump if he’s convicted of a felony.
Republicans Divided
A majority of Americans, 57%, say they wouldn’t vote for Donald Trump if he’s convicted of a felony, with this sentiment rising to 60% if he’s serving prison time. Interestingly, about a third of Republicans (29% and 35%, respectively) share this view.
Trials Bolster Trump’s Support?
Despite these numbers, around half of Republicans (52% and 49%) would still support Trump in these scenarios. Notably, 32% of Republicans state that the criminal cases against Trump actually increase their likelihood of voting for him in 2024.
D.C. Trial Postponed
The D.C. trial, originally set for early March, has been postponed due to the ongoing appeal. Meanwhile, Trump’s first of four criminal trials is set to start on March 25 in Manhattan, involving charges related to hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels.
Lesser Legal Threat?
Many believe that this New York case might be less damaging for Trump, both legally and politically. Even if found guilty, it may not lead to prison time, and Trump could more effectively portray the case as trivial compared to the more serious charges in D.C. regarding attempts to disrupt American democracy.
Trump’s Legal Roadmap
Trump’s additional criminal cases in Georgia and South Florida are anticipated to proceed to trial after those in D.C. and New York.
A Lengthy Legal Battle?
In a new legal analysis led by Norm Eisen, former ethics czar for President Barack Obama and House Judiciary Committee lawyer during Trump’s first impeachment, the team estimates the trial could last 8 to 12 weeks.
Timing Hinges on Court Decision
The pace of the trial hinges on the Supreme Court’s decision to hear the case or not. If the Court declines (or doesn’t ‘grant cert’), the trial could start in early June and possibly end by late August or early September.
A Timely Start
Should the Supreme Court take the case, with oral arguments and a subsequent opinion, the trial might begin in July and conclude by mid-to-late October.
Election-Eve Conclusion?
The lawyers acknowledge potential surprises that could disrupt this timeline, but currently, it seems Trump’s D.C. case may just conclude before the election, albeit narrowly.
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