In U.S.-wide polls conducted in January, Joe Biden narrowly leads Donald Trump in a hypothetical presidential race, a significant boost for Biden after earlier national polls showed him trailing the Republican front-runner.
Who’s Winning America?
Ipsos and YouGov surveys indicated a 1-2 percentage point advantage for Biden. However, a Newsweek analysis earlier in January hinted that Trump may have an edge in crucial swing states, potentially setting him up for a second term in the White House.
Trump Leads the Pack
On January 15, Trump clinched a decisive victory in the Iowa Republican caucus, securing 51 percent of the votes, followed by Ron DeSantis at 21.2 percent, Nikki Haley at 19.1 percent, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 7.7 percent, who subsequently withdrew and endorsed Trump. DeSantis also later withdrew.
A Two-Way Race Tightens
A Reuters-commissioned Ipsos poll of 3,815 registered voters, conducted from January 3 to 9, shows Biden as the preferred candidate for 40 percent of voters and Trump for 38 percent in a two-way race.
Third-Party Dynamics
When introducing a third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., both Biden and Trump’s support drops to 34 percent and 33 percent, respectively, with Kennedy attracting 17 percent of voters.
A Presidential Nail-Biter
A YouGov poll for The Economist, surveying 1,472 registered voters between January 14-16, indicates a tight race, with Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 44 percent to 43 percent.
Age, Gender, Race
This survey highlights Biden’s strong appeal among younger voters, capturing the 18-29 age group 56 percent to 29 percent, while Trump leads among voters 65 and older, 51 percent to 40 percent. Biden also holds a significant lead with female voters, 46 percent to Trump’s 38 percent, but Trump is ahead among male voters by six points.
Voter Demographics
Regarding racial demographics, Trump leads among white voters 50 percent to 39 percent, while Biden has a strong lead with Black and Hispanic voters, 57 percent to 18 percent, and 50 percent to 31 percent, respectively.
Stronghold in New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, a Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and NBC poll shows Trump with a 16-point lead over Nikki Haley, a drastic change from an earlier American Research Group poll where Trump led by only four percent. Trump won the primary with over 54% of the vote.
Trump Inches Ahead
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Recent polls in Pennsylvania, Biden’s birth state, show Trump leading. A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll has Trump up 40 percent to 39 percent, and a Quinnipiac University survey shows him leading 49 percent to 46 percent.
Biden Tops Democratic Field
Poll analysis by FiveThirtyEight indicates Biden holds a commanding lead in the Democratic primary over lesser-known party members, particularly activist Marianne Williamson.
Overwhelming Lead
A USA Today-sponsored Suffolk University poll, conducted with 278 likely Democratic primary voters from December 23-26, shows Biden leading significantly at 74 percent, with Williamson trailing at 9 percent.
Dominating the Democratic Vote
A Morning Consult poll of 800 likely primary voters, from December 22-24, reflects a similar trend, giving Biden an overwhelming 81 percent of the vote, compared to Williamson’s 2 percent.
Trump’s GOP Support
Entrance polls from Iowa’s caucus, analyzed by Langer Research Associates for ABC News, provide insight into the segments of the Republican electorate where Donald Trump performs strongly, as well as areas where his support is comparatively weaker.
Demographic Dominance in Caucus
He garnered significant backing from older caucusgoers (56% among those 45 and older), those without a college degree (67%), Republicans (54%), conservative voters (55%), and “very” conservative voters (51%). Additionally, 53% of white evangelical Christians supported him.
Trump’s Popular Segments
Trump was especially popular (82%) among caucusgoers who sought a candidate who “fights for people like me,” and also enjoyed strong support (64%) from those prioritizing immigration.
A Familiar Battle
The current political landscape hints at a possible repeat of the 2020 presidential race, with Joe Biden and Donald Trump once again at the forefront, engaging in sharp exchanges.
Biden-Trump Exchanges
In a speech at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, Biden labeled Trump a danger to American democracy, emphasizing, “Democracy is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot.” Trump, speaking from Iowa, criticized Biden’s approach, describing it as a “pathetic fearmongering campaign event.”
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