Trump and his team have set their sights on a record victory in Iowa, aiming for 50% support — or more. Anything less will be seized upon by the former president’s opponents, and the last Iowa poll suggests that might be what happens.
Great Numbers
The final poll in the Hawkeye State had Trump at 48% support. In contrast, Nikki Haley had 20%, and Ron DeSantis had just 16%.
Not Good Enough
However, 48% support might not be enough for Trump. Anything less than record-breaking could galvanize his opponents.
The Mark to Beat
The record victory was set in Iowa’s Republican presidential primary in 1988. Bob Dole took 37.4%, a robust 12.8% above second-place Pat Robertson.
No Surety of Victory
However, in 1988, third-place George H.W. Bush would go on to win the nomination and then the presidency. Similarly, in 2016, it was not Trump who won the Iowa primary but Ted Cruz.
Aiming High
On Sunday, Trump told a group of supporters that “there seems to be something about 50%.” He accused people of creating this “high expectation” in order to attack him if he failed to meet it.
Trump’s Words
Nevertheless, Trump seemed up for the challenge. “Let’s see if we can get to 50%,” he said. “If we don’t do that, let ‘em criticize us.”
Looking Beyond
Trump’s challengers have recently increased the polls in other states like New Hampshire. If his Iowa victory is anything less than crushing, they might be able to use that to improve their chances further in subsequent caucuses.
Remaining Hopeful
“We want to come out of Iowa looking strong,” Haley said on Sunday. In the last few months, her support in New Hampshire has increased by over 10 points, though she still trails Trump by more than 13%.
The Harsh Reality
In reality, “there is no competitive Republican primary,” Vox correspondent Zack Beauchamp said on MSNBC on Sunday. “There is a Donald Trump coronation.”
Fighting for Silver
“There’s a bunch of people who are jockeying to do something that is kind of like running for president,” Beauchamp continued, “but it’s not really running for president.”
The Constitutionality Issue
The Supreme Court recently agreed to consider the Colorado ruling barring Trump from the ballot. The Court could decide that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment, which would effectively open up the field to his opponents.
The Legal Issue
With three Trump appointees on the conservative-majority Court, there is a strong possibility that Trump will be allowed to run. Nevertheless, that still leaves the former president facing four cases, two of them federal, which could land him in prison.
The Godfather
“As long as he’s alive and capable of running for the presidency,” Beauchamp argued, “he will control the Republican Party, even probably from a jail cell.”
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