A subtle initiative has been set in motion to sway Black voters away from President Joe Biden in the upcoming 2024 elections.
Conservative Group Target Biden
This effort was first observed during South Carolina’s Democratic primary, where a conservative group, funded by undisclosed donors, targeted around 75,000 voters with mailers criticizing Biden’s stance on menthol cigarettes.
Division over Ban
Research cited by the FDA indicates that Black smokers are more inclined to use menthol cigarettes, leading to division among civil rights groups over the potential ban.
Direct Mail Strategy
The mailers, distributed in a state with a high Black electorate, questioned Biden’s priorities, specifically his administration’s efforts to prohibit menthol cigarettes.
Influence on Voter Turnout
Despite Biden’s overwhelming victory in the South Carolina primary, concerns linger about the potential for such campaigns to reduce voter turnout or divert votes to third-party candidates in crucial swing states for the November election.
Impact Analysis
Building America’s Future, the group behind the mailers, is analyzing the impact of their South Carolina campaign.
Expanding Influence
A source told NBC News that they plan to escalate their tactics, dedicating over $1 million to dissuade Democratic base voters, particularly Black, from supporting Biden in the general election in key battleground states through various advertising mediums.
Targeting Young Voters
However, the group may also aim to target young voters, as it did during golf’s WM Phoenix Open this month, focusing on concerns about potential bans on nicotine pouches like Zyn.
Political Maneuvering
Employing strategies to weaken the opponent’s base is common across the political spectrum. Both parties have historically targeted each other’s base in efforts to dilute support.
Ads Targeted GOP Candidates
In 2018, the nonprofit arm of the Democrats’ primary Senate super PAC funded ads targeting Republican candidates from a conservative perspective.
Campaign Against Hillary
Similarly, in 2016, the Trump campaign utilized Hillary Clinton’s defense of a 1990s crime bill, specifically her use of the term “superpredators,” in swing-state ads to potentially weaken her support among her base.
Voter Receptivity in 2024
The upcoming elections may see an increased openness among voters to consider abandoning their usual preferences amidst Biden’s waning support among Black and young voters and Trump’s challenges with traditional Republican demographics.
Shift in Strategy
For the 2024 presidential election, the focus is shifting towards strategies that not only attract supporters but also detract votes from the opposition, leveraging targeted communication methods over broad-reaching TV ads.
Leadership is About Priorities
The Building America’s Future mailer stated, “Leadership is about setting priorities. Instead of banning menthol cigarettes, President Biden should: Stop the flow of illegal drugs in our country; make groceries more affordable; make college more affordable.”
Unintended Consequences
In South Carolina, while some support the ban for health reasons, others warn it could lead to unintended consequences, including increased police interactions with Black individuals.
Police Confrontation Concerns
Attorney Benjamin Crump, in a last year interview, said, “We have to remember that when you give police another reason to confront Black people, it’s very likely they are going to use it in a criminal matter.”
Ban Deters Smoking
However, proponents of the ban contend that eliminating menthol and other flavorings can assist smokers in quitting and deter many, especially younger individuals, from initiating smoking in the first instance.
No Political Risk
NAACP Chairman Derrick Johnson and other Black leaders advocate for the policy, dismissing the notion that it poses a political risk for Biden.
Important for Community Health
Johnson said, “It’s important for the long-term health of our community. It is a red-herring argument at this ninth hour to say it will create political risk.”
Menthol Cigarette Ban Initiative
The Biden administration initially declared its intent to ban menthol-flavored cigarettes in 2021. According to the Food and Drug Administration’s initial statement, over 80% of Black smokers use menthol cigarettes, while only 30% of white smokers do.
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