Legal Analyst Predicts That Supreme Court Won’t Hear Trump’s Immunity Case

Joyce Vance, a former federal prosecutor, argued on Sunday that the reason the Supreme Court is taking so long to decide whether to hear Trump’s case is because a dissenting opinion in favor of Trump is being written.

Clock ticking

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“We’re still waiting on [the Supreme Court] on the presidential immunity appeal,” Vance wrote. “If, as seems likely, one or more Justices are writing dissents to a decision by the Court to deny the stay or decline to take the case, we won’t hear from the Court until they are done writing.”

Logical steps

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“It seems likely a Justice objected to a decision by the Court to hear the case would take so long to write a dissent,” Vance argued, “since their goal would in part be to avoid further delay.”

The logic explained

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In other words, a liberal Justice who did not want to hear Trump’s immunity case would hurry up and write their dissenting opinion, because they would want the former president’s trial to start as soon as possible. A conservative judge, however, would take their time writing their dissenting opinion, because they would want to delay the start of Trump’s trial for as long as they could.

Playing along

“Zero chance that the Supreme Court will rule in Trump’s favor on the merits of his immunity claim,” a Harvard law professor told Newsweek, “but a substantial chance that it will go along with his attempt to drag this out long enough to escape trial until after this November’s election.”

Stringing things out

Trump has been accused of attempting to delay his election interference trial until after the election, with the hope of escaping justice by retaking the White House. As president, he would be able to protect himself in numerous ways, including by instructing the Department of Justice to drop the case.

Going up the ladder

Trump was first denied presidential immunity by Washington DC Judge Tanya Chutkan. Chutkan is the judge overseeing Trump’s election interference case.

Next step

Trump appealed Chutkan’s ruling, taking the case to the Washington DC appeals court. A panel of judges on that court also denied his petition.

Flimsy argument

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Trump’s argument rests on the belief that actions he took while president should be protected from prosecution. In this case, these actions were those he committed before, during, and after the Jan 6 riot.

Going to extremes

Trump’s legal team drew headlines in January when one of the former president’s lawyers argued that a president should be able to personally order a Navy Seal team to assassinate a political rival and be protected from prosecution. A president would have to be impeached and convicted in the Senate, Trump’s lawyer argued, before they could face criminal charges for the murderous act.

Numerous cases

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Trump faces a total of 91 charges across four criminal cases in various jurisdictions. Alongside the election interference case in Washington DC is his classified documents case in Florida, the hush money payment case in New York, and the election interference case in Georgia.

Rushing to finish

Prosecutors in each of the four criminal cases have attempted to speed things along, but have faced numerous setbacks. There are growing worries that none of the four cases will reach a conclusion before the general election in November.

Delay is good

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If Vance is correct, and a conservative Justice is delaying the Court’s decision on Trump’s immunity claim, then Trump faces both good and bad news. Bad because the Court will reject his claim, but good because every additional delay works in his favor.