The first major poll of 2024 shows that Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden among Hispanic voters.
USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll
The USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll reveals that Trump leads Biden among Hispanic voters by 39% to 34%.
Trump Holds a 5-Point Lead
Similarly, last month’s CNBC All-America Economic Survey also found that Trump has a 5-point lead with Latino voters over Biden.
Hispanic Population Growth
The Latino population in the U.S. has surged from 50.5 million in 2010 to 63.6 million in 2022.
Democrats Had Expectations
Democratic pollsters anticipated that the growth of the Latino population, which historically aligned with their party, would strengthen their political base. However, recent trends have indicated a shift toward the Republican Party.
Trump’s Unexpected Appeal
This shift in voter sentiment is surprising for many, considering that Trump began his 2016 presidential campaign with controversial remarks, accusing Mexico of sending drug traffickers, criminals, and assaulters to the United States.
Trump’s Controversial Comments on Mexican Immigrants
Trump, in 2015, said, “When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending the best. They’re bringing drugs, they’re bringing crime. They’re ra..sts, and some, I assume, are good people.”
Border Wall Pledge for Immigration Control
The former president also made a key campaign promise to build a wall along the southern border to curb immigration from Mexico.
Top Issues for Latino Voters
The decline in Biden’s popularity among Hispanic voters is linked to economic concerns rather than immigration.
Inflation and Employment are Key Concerns
A November poll conducted by UnidosUS revealed that the primary concerns for Latino voters leading up to the 2024 election are the escalating cost of living, employment, and economic issues.
Moving from Immigrant Narrative to Working-Class Identity
Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist, expressed in a Los Angeles Times op-ed, “The Latino electorate is shifting away from the aggrieved immigrant narrative favored by Democrats and embracing a working-class identity that aligns with non-Latino counterparts.”
Latino Voter Decline Poses Risk for Democrats
The decline in Biden’s support among Latino voters offers a new caution to Democrats, indicating a potential risk of losing grip on a crucial voting demographic that played a significant role in Biden’s election in 2020.
Youth and Black Voter Decline
The USA TODAY/Suffolk University survey results also show a drop in Biden’s popularity among young and Black voters.
Trump Leads Younger Voters
Based on the survey, Trump leads Biden among younger voters with 37% support to Biden’s 34%.
Biden’s Black Voter Support Drops
Additionally, Biden’s support among Black voters has declined to 63%, a considerable drop from the 87% he received in 2020.
Trump’s Overall Lead Against Biden
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Overall, Trump leads the presidential race with 39% support compared to Biden’s 37%, while 17% of voters prefer a third-party candidate.
Third-Party Factor
When specific third-party candidates are named, Trump’s lead extends further, standing at 37% against Biden’s 34%.
Leading Third-Party Candidate
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerges as the leading third-party choice with 10% support.
Biden’s Supporters Considering Third-Party Candidates
The poll suggests that many of Biden’s previous supporters, particularly among Hispanic, Black, and young voters, are now considering third-party candidates.
Voting Third Party is a Vote for Trump
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, commented on the findings, “A young voter or a person of color voting ‘third party’ is a vote away from President Biden, and a vote away from President Biden is a vote for Donald Trump.”
Economic Recovery to Influence Voter Support
The poll findings highlight the challenging political landscape the president must navigate in securing a second term. An economic upturn in 2024 might shift Latino and other demographic voters back in favor of Biden.
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