This election cycle is seeing an unprecedented surge in congressional retirements.
Congressional Goodbyes
Retirement announcements are common post-holidays when lawmakers reflect on their future with family and consider whether to persist in Congress.
As House Republicans return from their holiday break, they’re grappling with a fresh round of retirements post-holiday recess.
Larry Bucshon Steps Down
Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.) recently declared his retirement, acknowledging that over the Christmas holiday, he realized it was time to end his public service.
Luetkemeyer and Lamborn Join the Retirement Wave
This follows similar announcements from Reps. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-Mich.) and Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.). Both were seasoned members of their committees with over a decade in Congress.
John Curtis Shifts Gears
Meanwhile, Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah) has decided to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), reversing his earlier decision not to run.
Bill Johnson’s Early Exit
Additionally, Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) will be leaving sooner than expected, on Jan. 21, to become president of Youngstown State University.
Empty Seats
Republicans and the House GOP’s campaign division see an opportunity in the wave of Democratic retirements for 2024. All five retiring members are known as institutionalists, holding seats that are securely Republican.
Republicans Eye Opportunity
Jack Pandol, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, stated, “The political blast radius from congressional retirements has almost entirely blown back on House Democrats.”
“These open swing seats are tilting the House battlefield, putting Democrats on defense from coast to coast as their incumbency advantages evaporate into thin air.”
Democrats Maintain Confidence
Yet, Democrats are maintaining their composure. Viet Shelton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, remarked, “As the reason for the least productive Congress since the Great Depression, it says a lot that when House Republicans run for the retirement exits, they’re trashing their own party on the way out.”
“We’re confident”
Shelton added, “It’s against this backdrop of dysfunction and Republican infighting that the public will be voting and why, in races to fill competitive open seats, we’re confident voters will choose Democrats’ responsible governance over the extreme MAGA acolytes that Republicans are nominating across the battleground.”
Turbulent Times in the House
In a recent interview at the Capitol in December 2023, Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., a former NRCC chairman, expressed his concerns about the current turmoil in the House.
He pointed to the unprecedented series of votes at the beginning of the year to elect Kevin McCarthy of California as speaker, followed by McCarthy’s removal a few months later, along with the issues of a divided government and growing polarization.
More Retirements on the Horizon?
Cole worries these factors could lead to more lawmakers choosing to retire.“You can see why members get frustrated,” he said. “The people that cut the deals are the ones that get vilified.”
House Battle Arguably Remains Neck-and-Neck
Although Cole acknowledged that the current retirements might favor Republicans, he emphasized that the battle for the House remains tight, particularly considering how the presidential race influences down-ballot dynamics.
“It’s still a game of inches,” he remarked.
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