As South Carolina Democrats rally their base for President Joe Biden in the upcoming primary, they’re eager to prove that Nikki Haley is not as moderate as some might think.
A Moderate or MAGA Leader?
In a series of recent events, they’ve branded Haley the ‘mother of the MAGA movement’ and highlighted her staunchly conservative policies from her governorship. They’re sending a straightforward message to Democrats considering the Republican primary: Don’t.
Nonbinary Leader Speaks
“I had to sue her to get married,” said Colleen Condon, identified as gay and the party’s first nonbinary vice chair, urging members to avoid the GOP primary and declaring, “Do not let your friends go vote in that primary. Please.”
Haley Gains Ground
Haley’s appeal to Democrats and independents in Iowa and New Hampshire has been notable, especially after narrowing the GOP field to a direct contest with former President Donald Trump.
Tough Odds for Haley
Nikki Haley, the last major challenger to Trump for the nomination, confronts tough odds in South Carolina, where the GOP base leans more towards Trump. To surpass her 43% showing in New Hampshire, expanding or rebuilding her support base seems essential.Primary Calendar
This situation underscores the impact of staggered primary dates between the parties in South Carolina. The state’s open primary allows any voter to participate in either primary, with Democrats setting their date in December 2022 and Republicans opting for a later date after Nevada’s contests.
Democrats Eyeing Haley
While there’s no strong evidence of Democrats shifting en masse to Haley, some consider supporting her on Feb. 24 due to the unchallenging nature of their primary, where Biden faces relatively unpopular candidates like Rep. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson.
For some, voting for Haley seems like a way to bridge the large polling gap with Trump.
Independents’ Dilemma: Haley or Biden?
Bill Samuels, 73 and retired in Beaufort, shared that he and his wife, both registered as independents, are considering casting their votes for Haley in the Republican primary. “I mean, who’s Biden running against,” he questioned while waiting in Singleton’s Barbershop in Beaufort to listen to Democrats.
Playing with Fire
Seated nearby, Jon Coffey, a Democrat, admitted he’s also thinking about voting in the rival party’s primary, calling it a “good strategy.” However, Coffey later expressed reservations about promoting Haley, cautioning, “You’ve got to be careful when you start playing with fire in a primary,” Coffey said. “It could backfire.”
Why is Haley Staying in the Race?
According to Elaine Kamarck’s analysis from Brookings, there’s a big question on the table: Why is Nikki Haley staying in the race? After her early concession and reminder that ‘New Hampshire is the first state — not the last,’ Haley’s persistence is quite intriguing.
The Post-Trump GOP Contender
Financially, her campaign might be buoyed by significant support from heavy hitters like the Koch brothers, despite the high costs of campaigning in states like California and Texas.
There’s also the uncertainty surrounding Trump, who faces potential legal troubles.
Preparing for 2028?
This unpredictability might play into Haley’s narrative, positioning her as the alternative to Trump’s chaos. Additionally, Trump’s potential loss in the general election could set Haley up as the ‘I told you so’ candidate, poised for leadership in a post-Trump GOP and a strong 2028 run.
But even if Trump wins, his constitutional term limit opens a path for Haley in 2028.
The Role of Age
Haley’s campaign might have peaked in New Hampshire, and continuing could alienate Trump’s base. Nevertheless, at 52, Haley has time on her side, a distinct advantage over the 77-year-old Trump.
Haley’s Odds
Haley’s spokesperson, Olivia Perez-Cubas, stated, “Nothing would make the Dems happier than Donald Trump being the Republican nominee.” She referred to national polls suggesting Haley could outperform Trump against Biden in the general election, adding, “They know Biden can beat him.”
Changing Rules in GOP Election
On the Republican front, there’s a push for changing the election rules to closed primaries, allowing only registered party members to vote in their respective primaries.
The ‘Worst’ Primary System
South Carolina Republican Party Chair Drew McKissick criticized the current open primary system as ‘the worst of all worlds,’ emphasizing the party’s goal to nominate and elect candidates with support limited to party loyalists.
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