In January, Atlantic columnist and speechwriter for George W. Bush, David Frum, warned that a second Trump term would be disastrous for the US and its allies. Among other problems, Frum cautioned that Trump would attempt to stay in power beyond his four-year term.
Dire warning
Frum referenced predictions that Trump would refuse to leave office in 2020. “In 2024,” he wrote, “Trump himself is arguing that he was right to refuse to leave office when defeated, and he is asking Americans to approve his refusal.”
Frum’s prediction
“If he should return to the presidency in 2025,” Frum continued, “we have no reason to expect him to leave in 2029.”
Sly suggestions
During the 2020 presidential election campaign, Trump told a crowd in Nevada that he would win reelection, and “after that we’ll negotiate.” He argued that he was “probably entitled to another four years after” his second term because of “the way we were treated.”
Multiple times
Trump made similar comments at a rally in Wisconsin, telling the crowd he would win reelection and then “go on for another four years.”
No choice
In 2019, Trump tweeted that his supporters “would demand that I stay longer” than just two terms. At a White House event that year, he told a crowd of supporters that he would stay president “at least for 10 or 14 years.”
Bad influence
In 2018, Trump praised Xi Jinping, who had recently abolished term limits in China, in a speech to Republican donors. “He’s now president for life,” Trump said. “He’s great. Look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday.”
Unfunny joke
After his 2019 comments about staying beyond a second term went viral, Trump insisted he was joking. He referenced a tweet showing Trump campaign signs until 2048, saying he made such jokes because “it drives them crazy.”
Just kidding
Trump insisted he was only kidding about staying beyond his two-term limit in 2018. “No, I’m not looking to do it,” he assured lawmakers. “Unless you want to do it. That’s OK.”
Take him seriously
In 2020, Trump’s former lawyer and then outspoken critic, Michael Cohen, warned that the former president should be taken seriously. He claimed that Trump wanted to be a “dictator.”
Warning signs
If Trump won a second term, “he is going to automatically, day number one, start thinking how he can change the Constitution for a third term, and then a fourth term,” Cohen said.
Still supported
“Trump’s party is signing up for the ride,” Frum wrote on Tuesday, “knowing exactly what the ride is.”
Self-defeating
“Pro-NATO senators are working to elect a president who will wreck NATO, knowing that he will wreck NATO,” Frum wrote. “After the Iowa Caucus, the Republican Party is all but certain to renominate Trump for the presidency.”
Not so certain
Trump took home 51% of the vote in Iowa’s primary. That was more than his challengers combined but far less than the 97% he earned as an incumbent in 2020.
Singular purpose
“Trump has made clear,” Frum argued, “that his ballot issue in 2024 is to rehabilitate and ratify his attempt to overturn the election of 2020. He is running to protect himself from the legal consequences of that attempt. But even more fundamentally, he is running to justify himself for attempting it.”
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