On Tuesday, Columbia University lecturer and Forbes columnist Tom Watson argued in his newsletter that former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House would mean the arrival of fascism in the US.
Dire warning
For centuries, Watson writes, the US “has persisted” through “existential storms” due to “stubborn but flexible resistance.” But the emerging threat of fascism is so significant, “if we lose — we lost it all.”
Grim consequences
“There will be camps,” Watson predicts in his column. “We will be Spain under Franco. Or worse.” The Spanish government estimates that during General Francisco Franco’s authoritarian rule over Spain, which lasted from 1939 to 1975, more than 100,000 civilians disappeared.
Specific dangers
“The country will be permanently re-ordered,” Watson continues. “Ethnic and religious minorities will suffer. Millions will be targeted because of sexual orientation. Immigrants will suffer. Public benefits will be destroyed. Criminal gangs will run the Federal government and even deep blue states will be hard-pressed to resist the pull of authoritarian rule.”
Optimism
Despite the stakes, Watson spends much of his column arguing that this future is unlikely to come to pass. “The threat is both longshot and total,” he writes. “I think we will win, and in convincing fashion.”
Good signs
Watson extensively quotes Simon Rosenberg to back that claim up. In an essay for MSNBC, Rosenberg listed several Biden achievements — the best economic recovery among the G7, the best job market in decades, and falling crime rates, among others — and pointed to down-ballot victories in the midterms.
Nevertheless
However, Watson also acknowledges several factors that make the Democrat’s chance of losing in 2024 “non-zero.” Some are common fears, such as Biden’s age, the crisis in the Middle East, and the advantage the Republican Party enjoys in the electoral college.
Media issues
Another problem, according to Watson, is that “the people who own “prestige” media want Trump for bottom-line financial reasons. His radicalism boosts clicks. He’s entertaining like a car wreck. They love him. Don’t count on media companies to oppose extremism or support American democracy.”
Expert analysis
One problematic media trend, according to Brookings, is “bothesideism.” “Journalists seemed poised from Day One” of Biden’s administration, the think tank wrote, “to ‘balance’ their justifiably negative coverage of Trump with a run of unjustifiably negative stories about Biden.”
The facts
During the first 100 days of his presidency, Biden faced slightly more negative coverage than positive, according to an analysis by Pew. Most coverage focused on his policies and ideology. Trump faced far more negative coverage during his first 100 days, in part due to the overwhelming media focus on his controversial character and leadership.
Foreign influence
“Putin also wants Trump,” Watson claims. “So does the Chinese state. There’s no subtle or hidden reason for this (though the disinformation tactics employed can be) – they want to weaken the liberal democratic West.”
Election meddling
In October, the FBI released an intelligence assessment claiming that Russia sought to “undermine public confidence in at least 11 elections across nine democracies, including the United States” between 2020 and 2022. “This is a global phenomenon,” the report said. “Our information indicates that senior Russian government officials, including the Kremlin, see value in this type of influence operation and perceive it to be effective.”
Deus Ex Machina
“The courts are not going to save us,” Watson warns, referring to Trump’s various legal issues, which include several cases seeking to remove him from state ballots. “They’re too slow.”
Ominous words
“The thunderstorm is coming,” Watson concludes. “We can’t avoid it.”
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